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Multinational
July 2, 2025 (see July 16 update below). Next update: August 1, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).
On the subject of worldwide tariffs, which continue to be the major influence on exchange rates so far in 2025: the July 9 U.S. deadline is approaching for trade agreements with multiple countries, based on moderation of the United States “reciprocal tariffs”; and China, in a paragraph of a June 11 2025 declaration at a major forum with Africa, indicated that it is “ready to…expand the zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent [of] tariff lines to…53 African countries.”
Looking at currencies around the world for the month of June 2025: the Mexico peso was up by nearly 3% against the US$ in June 2025, and is down by 3% against the US$ since this time last year (the Mexico peso is up by 9% against the US$ since the start of the USA versus the world trade war in late January 2025). The Costa Rica colón was up by 0.75% in June against the US$, and up by 3.5% since this time last year (almost no net change since the start of the trade war). South America currencies were generally stronger against the US$ in June 2025 - two exceptions were the Argentina peso and the Suriname guilder (see below for more on the Suriname guilder and other Guiana Highlands currencies). The Euro was up by 3.5% against the US$ in June 2025, and up by nearly 9% above its value at this time last year. The United Kingdom pound was up by 1.75% against the US$ in June 2025, and moved down by 1.75% in June against the Euro. The Türkiye lira was down by 1.75% against the US$ in June 2025, and down by 21% since this time last year (inflation of more than 30%). Currencies among countries of the former USSR were generally stronger or flat against the US$ - exceptions were the Ukraine hryvnia (down around 1% against the US$ in June 2025) and the Kazakhstan tenge, which fell by 1.75% in June and is down by 11% since this time last year against the US. In the Middle East, the Israel shekel was up by 3.3% against the US$ in June 2025, and up by nearly 10% since this time last year. Africa currencies were up against the US$ in June 2025 (generally by 1.5% or more), and, among these, the Zambia kwacha was up by 11%, and is up by 9% since this time last year. Currencies in Asia generally showed slight net movements in June 2025 against the US$. Among the exceptions: the South Korean won, the Australia dollar and the New Zealand dollar were all up by just under 2% against the US$ in June 2025. The Afghanistan afghani was down by 4.5% against the US$ in June 2025. Gold prices (US$) showed a net decline in June 2025, while metals prices were generally up on the month, including a 9% rise in US$ silver prices. Iron ore prices (the raw material for the huge variety of steel products under recently-raised US 50% tariffs) were down 3% on the month and have fallen by 7% since the start of the trade war (and down 30% in US$ terms since this time last year). Oil prices showed a net 16% increase in June 2025, but are down 15% from a year ago.
BRICS currency? BRICS is the group comprising eleven countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and Iran (nearly 40% of world GDP, nearly 50% of population.) It serves as a political and diplomatic “coordination forum” for its very interesting mix of member countries, and it pays particular interest to developments which affect the Global South, especially including the World Trade Organization, focusing on the impact of unilateral tariff and non-tariff measures. (There are, in addition, ten “partner countries”, which are Belarus, Bolivia, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.) Based on the diversity and size of the group, and also the current legal and financial structure of the forum, at this time there is little expectation, despite over ten years of discussion, that BRICS will ever issue its own currency (the BRICS New Development Bank, with eight partners and around US$20 billion in lending, operates mainly in US dollars, but with an increasing emphasis on local currencies), but still, attempts have been made to offer a design of what BRICS currency notes might look like, and the model bills issued incorporate the languages, and national landmarks, associated with each of the five founding countries. (There is a BRICS crypto-currency, which does not fit with the WCO definition of a true currency.) BRICS multinational groups on a variety of topics have been very active in June 2025, with many seminars and meetings of officials in Brazil, to culminate in the annual summit on July 5, at which time Russia (the strongest supporter of a BRICS currency over the last 10-15 years) takes over the presidency for five years, so there may be more possibility of movement on the currency issue. It should be emphasized that, whatever happens, there has definitely been continual discussion, particularly in Russia (the source of the banknote suggested design), about the possible creation of a BRICS currency (including “comments” by President Trump). Also, the structure for a currency pool (BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement), intended to focus on issues like balance of payments adjustments, has been established but has not been funded.
The Suriname guilder fell by 5% against the US$ in June 2025, after its year-over-year currency weakness of a much larger 28% fall against the US$ over the year (not much below the 30% decline in the Argentina peso over the same period). This has been in line with a sizeable fall in the Suriname inflation rate, from 30% over the whole of 2023 to around 6% so far in 2025. Suriname (population around 575 thousand) and its neighbor Guyana (currency since the 19th century has been the Guyana dollar , and population of around 850 thousand) are both poised for large increases in oil production from their offshore oil assets. The third of the trio of Guiana countries with oil in the same basin is Suriname’s other neighbor, French Guiana (population of around 300 thousand), which is an overseas province of France (and, as such, uses the Euro), whose oil and gas exploration and development are under the authority of the French government, which has strong views on oil and gas production in French Guina, including the leadership of European Union climate change agenda. Other neighboring countries for the three countries Guiana counties are Venezuela (north of Guyana) and Brazil (on the landward side of the three countries).
July 7, 2025 update from the US President, ”Extending the Modification of the Reciprocal Tariff Rates”: the above-mentioned July 9, 2025 deadline for ending the suspension of United States reciprocal ad valorem tariffs was, generally, extended until August 1, 2025. WCO remarks that, aside from the trade war, an emerging influence on the US dollar (which has shown net downward movements against most world currencies in the last few months) is worldwide concern about pressures on the United States Federal Reserve, with consequences for worldwide interest rates and inflation. Besides the reciprocal tariffs, the major non-rare earth mineral groups which have US tariffs on production from everywhere are steel (raw material is iron ore), aluminum (bauxite), and (soon to come) copper.
(World Currency Observer will next be updated on August 1, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)
